Djurgardens IF 2-4 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sirius make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sirius have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.90 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 50% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.33 xG and Sirius 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.989 / defence 0.823 | Sirius attack 1.019 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.221. Data: 58 Djurgardens IF games / 58 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 28% | Sirius 29%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | Sirius 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 28% | Sirius 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.33 / Sirius 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.989 / def 0.823 | Sirius attack 1.019 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sirius xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 4 Sirius.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, Sirius a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Record (4 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 1 | Sirius 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.99) and Sirius's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.02x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.63
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.35
1.02
Sirius xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
8%
13.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.02 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 58 games, going 32W 11D 15L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (19W 14D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.10 points per game from 29 outings (7W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.31 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 32W 11D 15L in their last 58 games (1.84 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 14D 25L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Sirius away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.28 PPG; Sirius away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Sirius have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Sirius?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 38%, Sirius 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Djurgardens IF) and 52% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Sirius in 31%; Sirius in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 45% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 52% of Sirius's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sirius in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Djurgardens IF 2-4 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.33 xG and Sirius 1.02 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Sirius attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 28% | Sirius 29%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 50%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Sirius winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.