Djurgardens IF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Djurgardens IF welcome Malmo FF to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF's home record at 3Arena: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Djurgardens IF, 3 for Malmo FF and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Malmo FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus Malmo FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 42% | Malmo FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.71 xG and Malmo FF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.289 / defence 1.062 | Malmo FF attack 0.953 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.436. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Djurgardens IF games / 32 Malmo FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Malmo FF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Malmo FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.71 / Malmo FF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.289 / def 1.062 | Malmo FF attack 0.953 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Malmo FF xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
Record (8 meetings): Djurgardens IF 4W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.29x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.29
23%
4.27
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.16
1.45
Malmo FF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.45 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 15D 16L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.90 PPG from 60 outings (32W 18D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.70 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.63 points per game from 30 outings (12W 13D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.88 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 32W 18D 10L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.77 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Malmo FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Malmo FF 0-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 53%, Malmo FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Djurgardens IF) and 53% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Malmo FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 53% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 53% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Malmo FF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.71 xG and Malmo FF 1.45 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.29 / defence 1.06 against Malmo FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 23% | Malmo FF 33%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 42%, Malmo FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.70 PPG, Malmo FF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.