Djurgardens IF 3-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 May 2023 at 18:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Kalmar FF's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Djurgardens IF have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Kalmar FF managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 3–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Djurgardens IF and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Kalmar FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 38% versus Kalmar FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Kalmar FF 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.25 xG and Kalmar FF 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.111 / defence 0.881 | Kalmar FF attack 0.959 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.083. Kalmar FF's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Djurgardens IF games / 36 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Kalmar FF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.25 / Kalmar FF 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.111 / def 0.881 | Kalmar FF attack 0.959 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kalmar FF xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Record (5 meetings): Djurgardens IF 4W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.96x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.36
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.17
0.92
Kalmar FF xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.92 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 34W 12D 14L from 60 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 18L across 60 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.63 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 21W 3D 6L from 30 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 12W 7D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 games (1.90 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 22 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 47%, Kalmar FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Djurgardens IF and 53% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 60% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Kalmar FF 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.25 xG and Kalmar FF 0.92 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Kalmar FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.71, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 30% | Kalmar FF 27%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Kalmar FF 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.90 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.