Degerfors IF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Sirius (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Degerfors IF face Sirius.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Degerfors IF and Sirius meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Degerfors IF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sirius have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Sirius's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sirius are 0.70 PPG clear of Degerfors IF over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sirius in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sirius have the stronger record — 5 wins to Degerfors IF's 0, with 1 draw.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Degerfors IF 2–3 Sirius — a Sirius win.

Sirius have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Sirius — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus Sirius 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 63% | Sirius 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.11 xG and Sirius 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.676 / defence 0.973 | Sirius attack 1.212 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.251. Degerfors IF's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Sirius have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 1.48. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 6 games and Sirius's last 36.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 26% | Sirius 45%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.50 | Draw 3.86 | Sirius 2.20. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 60% (last 10 away games).

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