Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Orgryte IS in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Degerfors IF have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Orgryte IS's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Orgryte IS's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Degerfors IF 2W, Orgryte IS 0W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 49% versus Orgryte IS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Orgryte IS 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.73 xG and Orgryte IS 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.825 / defence 0.950 | Orgryte IS attack 0.671 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Degerfors IF games / 19 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 58% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 17%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 50% | Orgryte IS 20% BTTS from recent games.

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