Degerfors IF 0-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 4W 1D 2L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Degerfors IF's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mjallby AIF's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Degerfors IF 31% | Mjallby AIF 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Degerfors IF 50% | Mjallby AIF 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.56 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.057 / defence 1.145 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.921 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.104. Data: 16 Degerfors IF games / 46 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 26%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 29% | Mjallby AIF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Degerfors IF 1.56 / Mjallby AIF 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.057 / def 1.145 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.921 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 44% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.92x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.39
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.17 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 5W 3D 8L from 16 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 8L across 16 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Degerfors IF against 0.75 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 0W 4D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 0.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 games (1.12 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 6D 8L in their last 16 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.86 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-4 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 29%, Mjallby AIF 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Degerfors IF) and 57% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 29% of games; Mjallby AIF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 71% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Degerfors IF's matches and 57% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Degerfors IF 0-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.56 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 26%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Mjallby AIF 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.12 PPG, Mjallby AIF 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.