BK Hacken 4-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (BK Hacken) versus 1.10 (Sirius). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 1 for Sirius and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sirius trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 60% and Sirius 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 55% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.30 xG and Sirius 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.350 / defence 1.126 | Sirius attack 1.005 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.053. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 39 BK Hacken games / 39 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 62% | Draw 19% | Sirius 19%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Sirius 5.26. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 50% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 62% | Draw 19% | Sirius 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG BK Hacken 2.30 / Sirius 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.350 / def 1.126 | Sirius attack 1.005 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sirius xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 4 - 3 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 62% chance of winning, Sirius a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.35x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
62%
1.61
19%
5.21
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.49
1.19
Sirius xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
10%
9.93
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
2%
53.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.19 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 22D 17L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Sirius's form line: 19W 18D 23L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.42 PPG, Sirius on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 7W 10D 13L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sirius in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 21W 22D 17L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Sirius have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.73 PPG; Sirius away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 53%, Sirius 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for BK Hacken and 60% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of BK Hacken's games and 63% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of BK Hacken's matches and 60% of Sirius's.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sirius in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out Sirius 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 4-3 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.30 xG and Sirius 1.19 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.35 / defence 1.13 against Sirius attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 62% | Draw 19% | Sirius 19%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 55%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.42 PPG, Sirius 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.