BK Hacken 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as BK Hacken welcome Sirius to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 14 September 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, BK Hacken have gone 6W 2D 1L this season (9 games, 2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bravida Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 3W 4D 2L from 9 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (BK Hacken) versus 1.60 (Sirius). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Sirius trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 50% and Sirius 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 56% | Sirius 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.56 xG and Sirius 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.199 / defence 0.755 | Sirius attack 0.747 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.445. BK Hacken's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 BK Hacken games / 18 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 53% | Draw 29% | Sirius 18%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Sirius 5.56. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 33% | Sirius 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 53% | Draw 29% | Sirius 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG BK Hacken 1.56 / Sirius 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.199 / def 0.755 | Sirius attack 0.747 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Sirius xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Sirius kick off?
BK Hacken vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 September 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
BK Hacken 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is BK Hacken vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Sirius part of?
BK Hacken vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 53% chance of winning, Sirius a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both BK Hacken and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.20x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.48
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.37
0.81
Sirius xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.81 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 9W 6D 3L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 7W 7D 4L from 18 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.83 PPG, Sirius on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.78 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 72%.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Sirius in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Sirius have gone 7W 7D 4L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Sirius away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.22 PPG; Sirius away: 1.44 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sirius in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
2
Draws
2
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, Sirius have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Sirius?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sirius see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 33%, Sirius 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (BK Hacken) and 33% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 56% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of BK Hacken's recent games and 33% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and Sirius tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sirius in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.56 xG and Sirius 0.81 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.20 / defence 0.76 against Sirius attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 53% | Draw 29% | Sirius 18%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 56%, Sirius 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.83 PPG, Sirius 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.