BK Hacken 0-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host IFK Goteborg at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 0L across 5 games at Bravida Arena this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bravida Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, BK Hacken have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 50% and IFK Goteborg 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 60% | IFK Goteborg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.35 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.646 / defence 0.699 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.010 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.138. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.646 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. BK Hacken's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 10 BK Hacken games / 10 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 72% | Draw 17% | IFK Goteborg 11%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | IFK Goteborg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: BK Hacken 20% | IFK Goteborg 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 72% | Draw 17% | IFK Goteborg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 50% | xG BK Hacken 2.35 / IFK Goteborg 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.646 / def 0.699 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.010 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.80
IFK Goteborg xG
50%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
BK Hacken 0 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 72% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.65) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 3-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.86
11%
9.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.15
0.80
IFK Goteborg xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.86
17%
Draw
9.03
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
10%
10.46
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
1%
94.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.80 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken's recent record stands at 4W 5D 1L from 10 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 3L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, BK Hacken have managed 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg in 80%.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IFK Goteborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 3.00 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
BK Hacken
1
Draws
3
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 6, IFK Goteborg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 0%, IFK Goteborg 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for BK Hacken and 75% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 100% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of BK Hacken's matches and 75% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at BK Hacken's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken and IFK Goteborg finished level at 0-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.35 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.80 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 2.3 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.65 / defence 0.70 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.01 / defence 1.29, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 72% | Draw 17% | IFK Goteborg 11%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 60%, IFK Goteborg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.