BK Hacken 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 July 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 2.10 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for BK Hacken, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 2–4 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 76% and IF Elfsborg 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 63% | IF Elfsborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.364 / defence 1.233 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.227 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.098. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 BK Hacken games / 41 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 46% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 33%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | IF Elfsborg 3.03. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 60% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 46% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG BK Hacken 1.98 / IF Elfsborg 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.364 / def 1.233 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.227 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.66
IF Elfsborg xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 46% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.36) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
46%
2.19
22%
4.64
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.64
1.66
IF Elfsborg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.66 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 16W 12D 13L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 22W 7D 12L from 41 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.46 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.65 PPG from 20 outings (10W 3D 7L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 10W 3D 7L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.80 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 16W 12D 13L in their last 41 games (1.46 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 7D 12L in their last 41 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.65 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.65 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 70%, IF Elfsborg 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for BK Hacken and 55% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of BK Hacken's games and 45% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of BK Hacken's matches and 55% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 12, as BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.66 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.36 / defence 1.23 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.23 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 46% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 33%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 63%, IF Elfsborg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.46 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.