BK Hacken 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host Degerfors IF at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 5W 3D 2L at Bravida Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (BK Hacken) versus 1.00 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 0, Degerfors IF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 77% and Degerfors IF 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 62% | Degerfors IF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.55 xG and Degerfors IF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.274 / defence 1.262 | Degerfors IF attack 0.814 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.119. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 BK Hacken games / 26 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 15%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Degerfors IF 6.67. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 63% | xG BK Hacken 2.55 / Degerfors IF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.274 / def 1.262 | Degerfors IF attack 0.814 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Degerfors IF xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
BK Hacken 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 67% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both BK Hacken and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.27) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
67%
1.48
18%
5.67
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.70
1.15
Degerfors IF xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
8%
12.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
1%
85.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.15 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 8D 10L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (8W 4D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.23 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 5W 3D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.08 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 8W 4D 14L in their last 26 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Degerfors IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.38 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 77%, Degerfors IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for BK Hacken and 54% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of BK Hacken's games and 46% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of BK Hacken's matches and 54% of Degerfors IF's.
Do BK Hacken and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.55 xG and Degerfors IF 1.15 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.27 / defence 1.26 against Degerfors IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 67% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 15%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 62%, Degerfors IF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.23 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.