AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Malmo FF make the trip to Strawberry Arena to face AIK Stockholm in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Strawberry Arena: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Malmo FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for AIK Stockholm, 1.30 for Malmo FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Malmo FF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Malmo FF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 48% versus Malmo FF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 50% | Malmo FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.17 xG and Malmo FF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.972 / defence 0.830 | Malmo FF attack 0.919 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.370. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 AIK Stockholm games / 34 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 38% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 31%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Malmo FF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: AIK Stockholm 50% | Malmo FF 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 38% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.17 / Malmo FF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.972 / def 0.830 | Malmo FF attack 0.919 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Malmo FF xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 38% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Record (9 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 4 | Malmo FF 4W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.97x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (0.92x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.22
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Malmo FF xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.04 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 60 games, going 30W 12D 18L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.90 PPG from 60 outings (32W 18D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.90 for Malmo FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 17W 7D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.63 points per game from 30 outings (12W 13D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.88 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Malmo FF in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 12D 18L in their last 60 games (1.70 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 32W 18D 10L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Malmo FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.93 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 5-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
4
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 1, Malmo FF have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 47%, Malmo FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AIK Stockholm) and 53% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Malmo FF in 40%; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 53% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 53% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Malmo FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Malmo FF defy the odds to beat AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.17 xG and Malmo FF 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Malmo FF attack 0.92 / defence 0.79, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 38% | Draw 31% | Malmo FF 31%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 50%, Malmo FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.70 PPG, Malmo FF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.