AIK Stockholm 0-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Friends Arena plays host to AIK Stockholm versus BK Hacken in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
AIK Stockholm (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Friends Arena, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 2D 4L this season (8 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
BK Hacken's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 2W 4D 2L from 8 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BK Hacken are 1.10 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 41% versus BK Hacken 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 35% | BK Hacken 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.08 xG and BK Hacken 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.796 / defence 1.093 | BK Hacken attack 0.886 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.363. AIK Stockholm's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. BK Hacken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 AIK Stockholm games / 17 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 30% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 41%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | BK Hacken 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BK Hacken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: AIK Stockholm 50% | BK Hacken 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 30% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.08 / BK Hacken 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.796 / def 1.093 | BK Hacken attack 0.886 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.32
BK Hacken xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
AIK Stockholm 0 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken part of?
AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 30% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 0.80x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BK Hacken's attack (0.89x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
30%
3.34
29%
3.49
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.40
1.32
BK Hacken xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.32 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm's recent record stands at 4W 5D 8L from 17 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 3L across 17 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AIK Stockholm heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AIK Stockholm have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 8W 6D 3L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.00 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.25 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won 4-1 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BK Hacken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 1, BK Hacken have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when BK Hacken 0-0 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 50%, BK Hacken 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (AIK Stockholm) and 62% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of AIK Stockholm's games and 75% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 62% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BK Hacken edge out AIK Stockholm 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat AIK Stockholm 0-1 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.08 xG and BK Hacken 1.32 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.80 / defence 1.09 against BK Hacken attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 30% | Draw 29% | BK Hacken 41%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 35%, BK Hacken 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.