Villarreal 4-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Villarreal face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Villarreal and Osasuna meet at Estadio de la Cerámica in La Liga (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Villarreal at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Osasuna and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Villarreal 2–2 Osasuna — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Villarreal 75% and Osasuna 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 65% | Osasuna 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Villarreal surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Osasuna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.53 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.148 / defence 0.970 | Osasuna attack 0.811 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.176. Data: built from Villarreal's last 71 games and Osasuna's last 71.
Result probabilities: Villarreal 51% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 23%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.95 | Draw 3.87 | Osasuna 4.37. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Villarreal 70% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 51% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Villarreal 1.53 / Osasuna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.148 / def 0.970 | Osasuna attack 0.811 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Osasuna xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Villarreal vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Villarreal vs Osasuna kick off?
Villarreal vs Osasuna kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Villarreal 4 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Villarreal vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Osasuna part of?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 51% chance of winning, Osasuna a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Villarreal and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Villarreal vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.15) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.81x) against Villarreal's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Villarreal's last 71 games and Osasuna's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.87
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Osasuna xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
5%
20.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Villarreal vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.93 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal come into this having played 71 games, going 29W 21D 21L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.25 PPG from 71 outings (22W 23D 26L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Villarreal against 1.25 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Villarreal's home form reads 13W 12D 10L across their last 35 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 35 away games (8W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.20 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Villarreal (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Villarreal
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Villarreal vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 29W 21D 21L in their last 71 games (1.52 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 22W 23D 26L in their last 71 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Osasuna away?
Villarreal's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.46 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Villarreal and Osasuna, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won Osasuna 0-3 Villarreal on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Villarreal vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Villarreal have won 5, Osasuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 77%, Osasuna 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Villarreal) and 46% (Osasuna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Villarreal vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Villarreal and Osasuna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Villarreal's games and 51% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Villarreal and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Villarreal's matches and 46% of Osasuna's.
Do Villarreal and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Villarreal's recent matches and 63% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Osasuna 4-2 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.53 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.15 / defence 0.97 against Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 51% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 23%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 65%, Osasuna 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.52 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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