Valladolid 0-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano meet at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 3L across 8 games at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this term (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Valladolid, 1.60 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Rayo Vallecano half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 31% versus Rayo Vallecano 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 44% | Rayo Vallecano 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.11 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.809 / defence 1.071 | Rayo Vallecano attack 1.052 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.075. Data: 16 Valladolid games / 54 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 33% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 38%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Rayo Vallecano 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 25% | Rayo Vallecano 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 33% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Valladolid 1.11 / Rayo Vallecano 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.809 / def 1.071 | Rayo Vallecano attack 1.052 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rayo Vallecano xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Valladolid 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 33% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano in?
Valladolid (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Valladolid's attack at 0.81x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (1.05x) against Valladolid's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.39
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.32
1.21
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.21 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valladolid come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 2D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Valladolid against 1.44 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valladolid's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.44 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayo Vallecano in 62%.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Valladolid's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.62 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Rayo Vallecano have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
0
Draws
4
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Rayo Vallecano have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 25%, Rayo Vallecano 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Valladolid) and 50% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 38%; Valladolid have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Valladolid's recent matches and 62% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valladolid's recent games and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Valladolid 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Valladolid 0-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.11 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.21 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valladolid fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Rayo Vallecano attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 33% | Draw 30% | Rayo Vallecano 38%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 44%, Rayo Vallecano 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.06 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.