Valencia 1-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Levante travel to Estadio de Mestalla to take on Valencia. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valencia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio de Mestalla — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Levante — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in La Liga this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Valencia) versus 0.90 (Levante). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Valencia, 0 for Levante and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Levante trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 42% versus Levante 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 50% | Levante 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.40 xG and Levante 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.928 / defence 0.978 | Levante attack 1.055 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.122. Data: 50 Valencia games / 12 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 42% | Draw 27% | Levante 31%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Levante 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 40% | Levante 57%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 42% | Draw 27% | Levante 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Valencia 1.40 / Levante 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.928 / def 0.978 | Levante attack 1.055 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Valencia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Levante xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Levante kick off?
Valencia vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Levante?
Valencia 1 - 0 Levante.
Where is Valencia vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Levante part of?
Valencia vs Levante is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 42% chance of winning, Levante a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Valencia and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
Record (2 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Valencia and Levante in?
Valencia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.67
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.56
1.16
Levante xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Valencia and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Valencia and 1.16 for Levante, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia's recent record stands at 2W 4D 6L from 12 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 7L across 12 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 0.83 PPG, Levante on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valencia have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Levante's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.75 PPG overall record — Levante travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.33 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante in 67%.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Levante in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while Levante have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Levante away?
Valencia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.33 PPG; Levante away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Valencia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Valencia's record when hosting Levante specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Valencia
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Levante?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 50%, Levante 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Valencia and 33% for Levante.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levante in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valencia's recent matches and 50% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Valencia's recent games and 33% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Levante tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Levante in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Levante 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Levante 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.40 xG and Levante 1.16 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levante landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Levante attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 42% | Draw 27% | Levante 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 50%, Levante 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Levante's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 0.83 PPG, Levante 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.