Sevilla 2-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sevilla, 1 for Osasuna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 55% versus Osasuna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 35% | Osasuna 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.11 xG and Osasuna 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.022 / defence 0.920 | Osasuna attack 0.754 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 0.972. Data: 60 Sevilla games / 60 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 46% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 4.55. Sevilla hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 40% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 46% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Sevilla 1.11 / Osasuna 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.022 / def 0.920 | Osasuna attack 0.754 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.357 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Osasuna xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla 2 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Osasuna part of?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 46% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Sevilla and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in?
Sevilla (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.14
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sevilla xG
Total xG
1.79
0.68
Osasuna xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
7%
13.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.68 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla's recent record stands at 24W 23D 13L from 60 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 23L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.58 PPG, Osasuna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 16W 9D 5L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.93 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 24W 23D 13L in their last 60 games (1.58 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 20W 17D 23L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Osasuna away?
Sevilla's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.90 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
4
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Osasuna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 50%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Sevilla and 27% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Osasuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sevilla's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sevilla's recent games and 27% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Osasuna tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Sevilla 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Sevilla 2-3 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.11 xG and Osasuna 0.68 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against Osasuna attack 0.75 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 46% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 22%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 35%, Osasuna 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.58 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.