Sevilla 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sevilla) versus 1.10 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sevilla, 3 for Osasuna and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 59% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 49% | Osasuna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.27 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.065 / defence 1.300 | Osasuna attack 0.623 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.140. Data: 49 Sevilla games / 49 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 44% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 26%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Osasuna 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Sevilla 80% | Osasuna 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 44% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sevilla 1.27 / Osasuna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.065 / def 1.300 | Osasuna attack 0.623 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osasuna xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Osasuna part of?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 44% chance of winning, Osasuna a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sevilla and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Record (8 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 4 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in?
Sevilla (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.38
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.20
0.92
Osasuna xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.92 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla's recent record stands at 14W 12D 23L from 49 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 16L across 49 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.10 PPG, Osasuna on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 7W 7D 10L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 2W 11D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.16 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 games (1.10 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 15W 18D 16L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Osasuna away?
Sevilla's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.17 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
4
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Osasuna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 62%, Osasuna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Sevilla and 25% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sevilla's recent matches and 46% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sevilla's recent games and 25% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Osasuna tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.27 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.06 / defence 1.30 against Osasuna attack 0.62 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 44% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 26%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 49%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.10 PPG, Osasuna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.