Sevilla 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Sevilla, 1.00 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sevilla lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 57% versus Alaves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 49% | Alaves 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.34 xG and Alaves 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.886 / defence 1.147 | Alaves attack 0.796 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.125. Data: 61 Sevilla games / 61 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Alaves 27%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 50% | Alaves 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Alaves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Sevilla 1.34 / Alaves 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.886 / def 1.147 | Alaves attack 0.796 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Alaves xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Alaves kick off?
Sevilla vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Sevilla 1 - 1 Alaves.
Where is Sevilla vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Alaves part of?
Sevilla vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 43% chance of winning, Alaves a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sevilla and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?
Record (7 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 3 | Alaves 3W.
What form are Sevilla and Alaves in?
Sevilla (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Alaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 0.89x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.80x) against Sevilla's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.31
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Alaves xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.03 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sevilla come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 15D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.10 PPG from 61 outings (17W 16D 28L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sevilla against 1.10 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sevilla's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Alaves in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 17W 15D 29L in their last 61 games (1.08 PPG), while Alaves have gone 17W 16D 28L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Alaves away?
Sevilla's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.27 PPG; Alaves away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sevilla
4
Draws
3
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 1, Alaves have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 53%, Alaves 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sevilla) and 50% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sevilla's recent matches and 53% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sevilla's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Alaves tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Alaves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 24, as Sevilla and Alaves drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.34 xG and Alaves 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 1.02, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Alaves 27%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 49%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.08 PPG, Alaves 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.