Real Madrid 3-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (78%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Real Madrid face Cadiz.

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Match Analysis

Real Madrid host Cadiz at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in La Liga (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 4 May 2024 at 16:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Madrid stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Real Madrid's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Cadiz have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Cadiz have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Real Madrid are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

Real Madrid hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Cadiz and 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Real Madrid 3–0 Cadiz — a Real Madrid win.

The head-to-head data gives Real Madrid an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Data

Real Madrid trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Cadiz trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Madrid 54% versus Cadiz 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Madrid 54% | Cadiz 27%). Note also that Cadiz surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Real Madrid recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.44 xG and Cadiz 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.482 / defence 0.761 | Cadiz attack 0.713 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.085. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.482 — their 2.44 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Real Madrid have a tight defence (rating 0.761), which is pulling Cadiz's projected output down. Data: built from Real Madrid's last 71 games and Cadiz's last 71.

Result probabilities: Real Madrid 78% | Draw 16% | Cadiz 7%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.29 | Draw 6.45 | Cadiz 14.99. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (78%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Real Madrid 40% (last 10 home games) | Cadiz 50% (last 10 away games).

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