Rayo Vallecano 2-4 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 38 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Levante to Estadio de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Rayo Vallecano have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Estadio de Vallecas: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Levante — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Levante have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.00 PPG versus Levante's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rayo Vallecano, 0 for Levante and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Levante in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 43% versus Levante 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 38% | Levante 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.57 xG and Levante 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.782 / defence 1.404 | Levante attack 0.898 / defence 1.842. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.102. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.842 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Rayo Vallecano games / 37 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 27% | Levante 33%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Levante 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Levante 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 27% | Levante 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.57 / Levante 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.782 / def 1.404 | Levante attack 0.898 / def 1.842 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Levante xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 4 Levante.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 40% chance of winning, Levante a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 0W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Levante (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.78x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
40%
2.47
27%
3.70
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.96
1.39
Levante xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
7%
14.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.39 for Levante, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 9D 17L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.86 PPG from 37 outings (7W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.14 PPG, Levante on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.56 points per game from 18 outings (2W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 games (1.14 PPG), while Levante have gone 7W 11D 19L in their last 37 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Levante away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.61 PPG; Levante away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Rayo Vallecano won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 44%, Levante 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rayo Vallecano) and 61% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 28% of games; Levante in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 61% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 61% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Levante tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levante in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Rayo Vallecano 2-4 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.57 xG and Levante 1.39 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Levante outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.78 / defence 1.40 against Levante attack 0.90 / defence 1.84, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 40% | Draw 27% | Levante 33%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 38%, Levante 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.14 PPG, Levante 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.