Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Real Madrid.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 February 2025 at 15:15 UK time.

Form

Osasuna (all games): 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Osasuna's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Osasuna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Real Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Real Madrid's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 1.00 PPG clear of Osasuna over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Real Madrid, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Osasuna 0–4 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Real Madrid have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Real Madrid — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 89%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Real Madrid 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Real Madrid 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Osasuna surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Real Madrid have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 89% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.28 xG and Real Madrid 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.093 / defence 1.109 | Real Madrid attack 1.343 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.154. Real Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.343, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from Osasuna's last 61 games and Real Madrid's last 61.

Result probabilities: Osasuna 29% | Draw 24% | Real Madrid 48%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.50 | Draw 4.22 | Real Madrid 2.09. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Osasuna's last 10 home games and Real Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 90% (last 10 home games) | Real Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).

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