Osasuna 1-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 50%, yet the head-to-head data favours Real Betis — this Osasuna vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Betis (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Real Betis have the stronger record — 4 wins to Osasuna's 1, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Osasuna 0–2 Real Betis — a Real Betis win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Real Betis have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Real Betis 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 45% | Real Betis 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.50 xG and Real Betis 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.213 / defence 1.045 | Real Betis attack 0.760 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.057. Real Betis's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Osasuna's last 47 games and Real Betis's last 47.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 18%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.00 | Draw 3.15 | Real Betis 5.49. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Osasuna 70% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 50% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Osasuna 1.50 / Real Betis 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.213 / def 1.045 | Real Betis attack 0.760 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Real Betis xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 1 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a La Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 50% chance of winning, Real Betis a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.21x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.76x) against Osasuna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 47 games and Real Betis's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
50%
2.00
32%
3.15
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.34
0.84
Real Betis xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
4%
24.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.84 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 16W 12D 19L from 47 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 12L across 47 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Osasuna against 1.47 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 10W 6D 7L from their last 23 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 5W 10D 8L across their last 23 away games, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.19 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 12D 19L in their last 47 games (1.28 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 17W 18D 12L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Betis away?
Osasuna's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.57 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Real Betis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won Real Betis 4-1 Osasuna on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 52%, Real Betis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Osasuna and 35% for Real Betis.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Real Betis in 30%; Real Betis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Betis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Real Betis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Osasuna's recent matches and 52% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Real Betis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Osasuna's recent games and 35% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Betis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Osasuna's recent matches and 65% of Real Betis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.50 xG and Real Betis 0.84 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Real Betis attack 0.76 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 50% | Draw 32% | Real Betis 18%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Real Betis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Real Betis 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Real Betis 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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