Osasuna 1-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 1.00 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Osasuna, 2 for Mallorca and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 51% versus Mallorca 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 41% | Mallorca 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.19 xG and Mallorca 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.862 / defence 1.034 | Mallorca attack 0.927 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.179. Data: 39 Osasuna games / 39 Mallorca games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 50% | Mallorca 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Osasuna 1.19 / Mallorca 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.862 / def 1.034 | Mallorca attack 0.927 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Mallorca xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 36% chance of winning, Mallorca a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Record (6 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.86x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.28
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.32
1.13
Mallorca xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.13 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 10D 17L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca's form line: 8W 17D 14L from 39 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.18 PPG, Mallorca on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 2W 8D 9L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.87 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 39 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 8W 17D 14L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.26 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 47%, Mallorca 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Osasuna and 32% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 26% of games; Mallorca in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osasuna's recent matches and 53% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Osasuna's recent games and 32% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Mallorca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Mallorca 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.19 xG and Mallorca 1.13 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.86 / defence 1.03 against Mallorca attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 41%, Mallorca 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.18 PPG, Mallorca 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.