Osasuna 1-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Getafe at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Getafe — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Getafe have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.10 (Getafe). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osasuna, 1 for Getafe and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Getafe winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Getafe trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Getafe 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 40% | Getafe 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.02 xG and Getafe 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.843 / defence 1.250 | Getafe attack 0.742 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.114. Data: 35 Osasuna games / 35 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 34% | Draw 32% | Getafe 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Getafe 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Getafe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 34% | Draw 32% | Getafe 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Osasuna 1.02 / Getafe 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.843 / def 1.250 | Getafe attack 0.742 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Getafe xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Getafe kick off?
Osasuna vs Getafe kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Osasuna vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Getafe part of?
Osasuna vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 34% chance of winning, Getafe a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Osasuna and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 0 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.84x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.13
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.06
1.03
Getafe xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.33
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.03 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 12W 10D 13L from 35 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 14L across 35 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.31 PPG, Getafe on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 5W 6D 6L from 17 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 1W 7D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.89 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Getafe in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 games (1.31 PPG), while Getafe have gone 8W 13D 14L in their last 35 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Getafe away?
Osasuna's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.24 PPG; Getafe away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Getafe in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
2
Draws
6
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Getafe have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Getafe 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 47%, Getafe 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for Osasuna and 18% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 29% of games; Getafe in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osasuna's recent matches and 35% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Osasuna's recent games and 18% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Getafe tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Getafe in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Getafe finished level at 1-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.02 xG and Getafe 1.03 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.84 / defence 1.25 against Getafe attack 0.74 / defence 1.13, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 34% | Draw 32% | Getafe 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Getafe 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Getafe's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.31 PPG, Getafe 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.