Mallorca 0-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Villarreal travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 August 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Mallorca) versus 1.70 (Villarreal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Villarreal and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 4–2 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 38% versus Villarreal 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 31% | Villarreal 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.42 xG and Villarreal 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.039 / defence 0.839 | Villarreal attack 1.101 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.085. Data: 39 Mallorca games / 39 Villarreal games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 46% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 26%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Villarreal 3.85. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 40% | Villarreal 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 46% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Mallorca 1.42 / Villarreal 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.039 / def 0.839 | Villarreal attack 1.101 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Villarreal xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Villarreal kick off?
Mallorca vs Villarreal kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Mallorca vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Villarreal part of?
Mallorca vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 46% chance of winning, Villarreal a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mallorca and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Record (4 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.04) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.56
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.42
1.00
Villarreal xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.00 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 14W 9D 16L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal's form line: 19W 7D 13L from 39 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.31 PPG, Villarreal on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 7W 4D 8L from 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 39 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 19W 7D 13L in their last 39 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Villarreal away?
Mallorca's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.84 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Villarreal in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 37%, Villarreal 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Mallorca and 47% for Villarreal.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Villarreal in 37%; Villarreal in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Mallorca's recent matches and 42% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Mallorca's recent games and 47% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Villarreal defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.42 xG and Villarreal 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Villarreal attack 1.10 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 46% | Draw 28% | Villarreal 26%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 31%, Villarreal 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Villarreal's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.31 PPG, Villarreal 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.