Mallorca 1-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Mallorca take on Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Sevilla meet at Visit Mallorca Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca at Visit Mallorca Estadi this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
Sevilla (all games): 6W 2D 1L across 9 La Liga outings this term — 2.22 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.78 per game and conceding 0.67. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 9 games (56%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla away from home this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.22 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sevilla arrive in superior form — a 1.02 PPG advantage (2.22 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Mallorca 33% | Sevilla 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Sevilla 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.81 xG and Sevilla 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.850 / defence 1.022 | Sevilla attack 0.670 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.088. Data: 10 Mallorca games / 9 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 33% | Draw 38% | Sevilla 29%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Sevilla 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.55. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.55 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Sevilla's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Sevilla 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 33% | Draw 38% | Sevilla 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Mallorca 0.81 / Sevilla 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.850 / def 1.022 | Sevilla attack 0.670 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Sevilla xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Sevilla kick off?
Mallorca vs Sevilla kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Mallorca vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Sevilla part of?
Mallorca vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 33% chance of winning, Sevilla a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Mallorca and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sevilla (all comps): 6W-2D-1L in 9 | 2.22 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.67x) against Mallorca's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
38%
2.65
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.55
0.74
Sevilla xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.1 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.74 for Sevilla, a combined total of 1.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 2.22 PPG from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Mallorca — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sevilla's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.78 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Sevilla in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 6W 2D 1L in their last 9 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Sevilla away?
Mallorca's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.75 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Sevilla in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
4
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Sevilla have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Mallorca) and 25% (Sevilla) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mallorca and 0% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Sevilla in 50%; Sevilla in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Mallorca's recent matches and 25% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mallorca's recent games and 0% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Mallorca and Sevilla share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 11, as Mallorca and Sevilla drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.81 xG and Sevilla 0.74 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Sevilla attack 0.67 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 33% | Draw 38% | Sevilla 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Sevilla 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Sevilla's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.