Mallorca 2-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Osasuna travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mallorca) versus 0.80 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mallorca, 3 for Osasuna and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mallorca trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 53% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 43% | Osasuna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.848 / defence 0.903 | Osasuna attack 0.602 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.102. Data: 51 Mallorca games / 51 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 21%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Osasuna 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Osasuna's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 60% | Osasuna 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 29% | xG Mallorca 1.00 / Osasuna 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.848 / def 0.903 | Osasuna attack 0.602 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Osasuna xG
29%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Osasuna kick off?
Mallorca vs Osasuna kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Mallorca 2 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Mallorca vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Osasuna part of?
Mallorca vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Osasuna a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Mallorca and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Record (8 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 3 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.85) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.6%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.25
34%
2.93
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.60
0.60
Osasuna xG
2.25
44%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.50
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.60 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 16W 12D 23L from 51 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 18L across 51 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.18 PPG, Osasuna on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 9W 9D 7L from 25 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 2W 11D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 51 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 15W 18D 18L in their last 51 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Osasuna away?
Mallorca's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.44 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Mallorca's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
5
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Osasuna have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 60%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Mallorca and 24% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mallorca's recent matches and 44% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mallorca's recent games and 24% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Osasuna tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Osasuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 14, as Mallorca and Osasuna drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.00 xG and Osasuna 0.60 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Osasuna attack 0.60 / defence 0.85, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Osasuna 21%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 43%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.18 PPG, Osasuna 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.