Mallorca 1-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mallorca face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 21 September 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Madrid (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Atletico Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Atletico Madrid arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Mallorca, 5 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 8 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Atletico Madrid winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mallorca — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 52% versus Atletico Madrid 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 43% | Atletico Madrid 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.12 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.828 / defence 1.115 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.004 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.140. Data: 42 Mallorca games / 42 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 32% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 39%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Madrid 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 80% | Atletico Madrid 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 32% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Mallorca 1.12 / Atletico Madrid 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.828 / def 1.115 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.004 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Atletico Madrid xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Mallorca 1 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 32% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mallorca and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Record (8 meetings): Mallorca 3W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 5W.
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.83x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.00x) against Mallorca's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
32%
3.12
29%
3.50
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
Atletico Madrid xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.28 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 13W 10D 19L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 23W 12D 7L from 42 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 8W 7D 6L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.74 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Atletico Madrid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 23W 12D 7L in their last 42 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.33 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
6
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Atletico Madrid have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 62%, Atletico Madrid 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mallorca) and 38% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 33%; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Atletico Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Mallorca's recent matches and 48% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mallorca's recent games and 38% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 5, as Mallorca and Atletico Madrid drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.12 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.83 / defence 1.11 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 32% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 39%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 43%, Atletico Madrid 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.