Levante vs Villarreal – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levante at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Villarreal make the trip to to face Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Levante (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's home record at : 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Levante are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Levante, 1.20 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Levante have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Villarreal in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Villarreal hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with Villarreal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Villarreal have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 53% versus Villarreal 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 49% | Villarreal 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.99 xG and Villarreal 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 1.438 / defence 1.230 | Villarreal attack 0.981 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.274. Levante carry an above-average attack strength of 1.438 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Levante games / 47 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 47% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 29%. Fair-value odds: Levante 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Villarreal 3.45. Levante hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levante as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levante if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Levante 70% | Villarreal 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 47% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Levante 1.99 / Villarreal 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 1.438 / def 1.230 | Villarreal attack 0.981 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Levante (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Villarreal xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Villarreal kick off?
Levante vs Villarreal is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Levante vs Villarreal part of?
Levante vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 47% chance of winning, Villarreal a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Levante the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Levante and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Villarreal?
Record (5 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 4W.
What form are Levante and Villarreal in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levante's attack at 1.44x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (0.98x) against Levante's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levante Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.16
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Levante xG
Total xG
3.53
1.54
Villarreal xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Levante and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Levante and 1.54 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levante's recent record stands at 13W 13D 21L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 14L across 47 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levante have managed 9W 6D 8L from 23 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.81 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 64%.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 13W 13D 21L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 24W 9D 14L in their last 47 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Villarreal away?
Levante's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 1.43 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 5-0 on 3 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Levante
0
Draws
4
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Villarreal?
From 5 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Villarreal have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Villarreal 3-1 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 61%, Villarreal 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Levante) and 48% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Villarreal in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Levante's games and 61% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Levante's recent games and 48% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Villarreal tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.