Levante 3-3 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levante and Real Madrid meet at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Madrid have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 La Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Real Madrid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Madrid arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Levante register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Real Madrid in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.83 xG and Real Madrid 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.976 / defence 1.150 | Real Madrid attack 1.286 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 0.713 / away 0.812. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 1 Levante games / 1 Real Madrid games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levante 22% | Draw 38% | Real Madrid 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Real Madrid 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 33% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form. Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 22% | Draw 38% | Real Madrid 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Levante 0.83 / Real Madrid 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.976 / def 1.150 | Real Madrid attack 1.286 / def 1.196 | league avg home 0.713 / away 0.812 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Real Madrid xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Real Madrid kick off?
Levante vs Real Madrid kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Real Madrid?
Levante 3 - 3 Real Madrid.
Where is Levante vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Real Madrid part of?
Levante vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 22% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 41% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levante and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Real Madrid in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Real Madrid (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.98) and Real Madrid's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.29x) against Levante's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
22%
4.62
38%
2.65
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Levante xG
Total xG
2.03
1.20
Real Madrid xG
4.62
22%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.34
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Levante and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Levante and 1.20 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levante come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 1D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Real Madrid sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Real Madrid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 4.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Real Madrid's attacking output running into Levante's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Levante have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Real Madrid in 100%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Early Season
Real Madrid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Real Madrid have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 6-0 on 12 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
3
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Real Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Real Madrid have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Real Madrid 2-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Real Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Levante's games and 100% of Real Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Levante's recent games and 100% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante and Real Madrid share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 2, as Levante and Real Madrid drew 3-3 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.83 xG and Real Madrid 1.20 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Madrid outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Real Madrid attack 1.29 / defence 1.20, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Levante 22% | Draw 38% | Real Madrid 41%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 0%, Real Madrid 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Levante scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid managed 3 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.