Levante 1-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Getafe at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Getafe travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Levante at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Getafe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Getafe are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levante, 1 for Getafe and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Getafe trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 50% versus Getafe 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levante 43% | Getafe 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.02 xG and Getafe 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.827 / defence 1.194 | Getafe attack 0.908 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.133. Getafe's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 30 Levante games / 68 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 30% | Draw 29% | Getafe 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Getafe 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levante 50% | Getafe 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 30% | Draw 29% | Getafe 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Levante 1.02 / Getafe 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.827 / def 1.194 | Getafe attack 0.908 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Getafe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Getafe xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Getafe kick off?
Levante vs Getafe kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Getafe?
Levante 1 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Levante vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Getafe part of?
Levante vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 30% chance of winning, Getafe a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Levante and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Getafe?
Record (3 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 2 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Levante and Getafe in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Getafe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.83) and Getafe's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.49
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Levante xG
Total xG
2.25
1.23
Getafe xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
9%
11.25
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Levante and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Levante and 1.23 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Levante have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 6W 8D 16L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Getafe's form line: 12W 5D 13L from 30 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Getafe are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levante have posted 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
On the road, Getafe have gone 6W 2D 7L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.90 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Current Season
Getafe
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Getafe in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while Getafe have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Getafe away?
Getafe's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.93 PPG; Getafe away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Levante or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levante have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Getafe in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2022, when Getafe won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Levante's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Levante
2
Draws
1
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 1, Getafe have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Levante 1-0 Getafe.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 60%, Getafe 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Levante) and 40% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 33% of games; Getafe in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Levante's recent matches and 33% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Levante's recent games and 40% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Getafe tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Getafe in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levante defy the odds to beat Getafe 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Getafe 1-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.02 xG and Getafe 1.23 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Getafe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Getafe attack 0.91 / defence 0.79, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 30% | Draw 29% | Getafe 41%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 43%, Getafe 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Getafe's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Getafe arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.