Leganes 3-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leganes vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Leganes welcome Celta Vigo to Estadio Municipal de Butarque in La Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Leganes — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Leganes have posted 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Celta Vigo have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Celta Vigo's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Celta Vigo's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Leganes's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Leganes in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 25% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leganes 50% and Celta Vigo 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 20% | Celta Vigo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 1.03 xG and Celta Vigo 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.593 / defence 1.066 | Celta Vigo attack 1.129 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.106. Leganes's attack rating of 0.593 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Celta Vigo's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leganes's projected output up. Data: built from Leganes's last 10 games and Celta Vigo's last 48.
Result probabilities: Leganes 27% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 42%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 3.72 | Draw 3.18 | Celta Vigo 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leganes 25% (last 4 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 27% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Leganes 1.03 / Celta Vigo 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.593 / def 1.066 | Celta Vigo attack 1.129 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Celta Vigo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leganes vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Leganes vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Leganes vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Celta Vigo?
Leganes 3 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Leganes vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Celta Vigo part of?
Leganes vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 27% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Leganes and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Leganes vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leganes's attacking strength (0.59x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Leganes's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leganes's last 10 games and Celta Vigo's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
27%
3.72
31%
3.18
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.36
1.33
Celta Vigo xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leganes vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Leganes and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Leganes and 1.33 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Leganes have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 5D 4L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Celta Vigo's form line: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Celta Vigo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Leganes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leganes have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Celta Vigo's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Leganes are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 80%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
Leganes (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leganes
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Leganes vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Leganes and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Celta Vigo away?
Leganes's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.00 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Leganes
0
Draws
1
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Leganes vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Celta Vigo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Leganes have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Celta Vigo 2-1 Leganes.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leganes's games tend to start slowly — only 25% have a goal by half-time.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 25%, Celta Vigo 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Leganes) and 75% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Leganes have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leganes vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leganes and Celta Vigo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Leganes's recent matches and 75% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leganes and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Leganes's recent games and 75% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leganes and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 25% of Leganes's recent matches and 100% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leganes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Celta Vigo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leganes beat Celta Vigo 3-0 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 1.03 xG and Celta Vigo 1.33 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Leganes beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Celta Vigo landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.59 / defence 1.07 against Celta Vigo attack 1.13 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 27% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 42%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Leganes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 20%, Celta Vigo 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Celta Vigo arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Leganes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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