Granada CF 1-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Granada CF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Granada CF welcome Getafe to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Granada CF — All Games: 1W 4D 4L from 9 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.78 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Getafe stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Granada CF have the edge — a 0.58 PPG advantage (0.78 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Granada CF trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Getafe trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 56% versus Getafe 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 33% | Getafe 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.20 xG and Getafe 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.962 / defence 1.269 | Getafe attack 0.528 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.059. Getafe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Granada CF games / 10 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 46% | Draw 34% | Getafe 20%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Getafe 5.00. Granada CF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Granada CF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Granada CF 75% | Getafe 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 46% | Draw 34% | Getafe 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Granada CF 1.20 / Getafe 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.962 / def 1.269 | Getafe attack 0.528 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Getafe xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Getafe kick off?
Granada CF vs Getafe kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Getafe?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Granada CF vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Getafe part of?
Granada CF vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 46% chance of winning, Getafe a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Granada CF and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Getafe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Getafe in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Getafe (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
46%
2.17
34%
2.98
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Granada CF xG
Total xG
1.91
0.71
Getafe xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Granada CF and 0.71 for Getafe, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 7L across 9 games — 0.22 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Granada CF by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Getafe in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Getafe have gone 0W 2D 7L in their last 9 (0.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Getafe away?
Granada CF's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.00 PPG; Getafe away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Granada CF's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
2
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Getafe?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Getafe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Getafe 2-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 75%, Getafe 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Granada CF) and 50% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Getafe in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Granada CF's recent matches and 25% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Granada CF's recent games and 50% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Getafe tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Getafe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 11, as Granada CF and Getafe drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.20 xG and Getafe 0.71 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Getafe attack 0.53 / defence 1.20, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 46% | Draw 34% | Getafe 20%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 33%, Getafe 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Granada CF arrived the stronger side — 0.78 PPG against 0.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.