Granada CF 0-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Granada CF at 40%, yet in-form Elche provide a compelling counter-argument — this Granada CF vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Granada CF and Elche meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Granada CF have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Granada CF have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Granada CF are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes than their overall form suggests.
Elche (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Elche are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Granada CF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Elche in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Granada CF, 0 for Elche and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Elche half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 59% versus Elche 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 44% | Elche 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.44 xG and Elche 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.859 / defence 1.393 | Elche attack 0.784 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.134. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Granada CF games / 27 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 40% | Draw 28% | Elche 31%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Elche 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Granada CF at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Elche (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Granada CF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 70% | Elche 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 40% | Draw 28% | Elche 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Granada CF 1.44 / Elche 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.859 / def 1.393 | Elche attack 0.784 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Elche xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Elche kick off?
Granada CF vs Elche kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Elche?
Granada CF 0 - 1 Elche.
Where is Granada CF vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Elche part of?
Granada CF vs Elche is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 40% chance of winning, Elche a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Granada CF and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Elche?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Elche 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Elche in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Elche (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.86x the league average against Elche's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.78x) against Granada CF's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.51
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.68
1.24
Elche xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.24 for Elche, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 5W 10D 12L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche's form line: 7W 8D 12L from 27 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Granada CF against 1.07 for Elche. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Granada CF have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Elche have gone 2W 3D 8L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Granada CF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Elche in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 5W 10D 12L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Elche have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Elche away?
Granada CF's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.23 PPG; Elche away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Elche?
From 2 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Elche have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Granada CF 0-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Elche?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Granada CF, 62% for Elche — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Granada CF) and 62% (Elche). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Elche in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Elche?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Granada CF's games and 62% of Elche's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Granada CF's matches and 62% of Elche's.
Do Granada CF and Elche tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Elche in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Elche defy the odds to beat Granada CF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Granada CF 0-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.44 xG and Elche 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Granada CF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.39 against Elche attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 40% | Draw 28% | Elche 31%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Elche win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 44%, Elche 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Elche's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.93 PPG, Elche 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.