Girona 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Girona welcome Cadiz to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 2W 1D 5L from 8 La Liga matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 games at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.88 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 0.88 PPG, Cadiz 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
Cadiz trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 75% versus Cadiz 12%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 62% | Cadiz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.55 xG and Cadiz 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.074 / defence 1.468 | Cadiz attack 0.748 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.192. Data: 8 Girona games / 46 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 32%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Cadiz 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Girona 75% | Cadiz 20%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Girona 1.55 / Cadiz 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.074 / def 1.468 | Cadiz attack 0.748 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Girona (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Cadiz xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Cadiz kick off?
Girona vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Cadiz?
Girona 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Girona vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Cadiz part of?
Girona vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 43% chance of winning, Cadiz a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Girona and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Cadiz in?
Girona (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Cadiz's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
43%
2.32
25%
4.04
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Girona xG
Total xG
2.86
1.31
Cadiz xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Girona and 1.31 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 5L across 8 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 0.88 PPG, Cadiz on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Cadiz in 12%.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Cadiz away?
Girona's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.00 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Cadiz runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Girona have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Girona won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Girona 4-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Cadiz?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Girona 67% BTTS, Cadiz 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Girona) and 33% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 33%; Girona have failed to score in 33% of games; Cadiz in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Girona's recent matches and 0% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Girona's recent games and 33% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Cadiz tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 9, as Girona and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.55 xG and Cadiz 1.31 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.07 / defence 1.47 against Cadiz attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 43% | Draw 25% | Cadiz 32%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 62%, Cadiz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 0.88 PPG, Cadiz 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.