Getafe 4-2 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Getafe host Granada CF at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 20 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Getafe stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Granada CF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Getafe 1.60 PPG, Granada CF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Getafe, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Getafe trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Granada CF trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 30% versus Granada CF 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 30% | Granada CF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.09 xG and Granada CF 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.903 / defence 0.939 | Granada CF attack 0.743 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.068. Data: 20 Getafe games / 20 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 42% | Draw 35% | Granada CF 23%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Granada CF 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 30% | Granada CF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 42% | Draw 35% | Granada CF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Getafe 1.09 / Granada CF 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.903 / def 0.939 | Granada CF attack 0.743 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Getafe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Granada CF xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Granada CF kick off?
Getafe vs Granada CF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 January 2022 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Granada CF?
Getafe 4 - 2 Granada CF.
Where is Getafe vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Granada CF part of?
Getafe vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 42% chance of winning, Granada CF a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Getafe and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Getafe and Granada CF in?
Getafe (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Granada CF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Getafe's attack at 0.90x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Getafe's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
42%
2.39
35%
2.86
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.83
0.74
Granada CF xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Getafe and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Getafe and 0.74 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Getafe come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 6D 10L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (5W 9D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Getafe on 0.90 PPG, Granada CF on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Getafe's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (1W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Getafe are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Getafe have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Granada CF in 65%.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 4W 6D 10L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 5W 9D 6L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Granada CF away?
Getafe's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.40 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Getafe or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Granada CF in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Getafe and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Getafe's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Getafe
2
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Granada CF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2024, when Getafe 2-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Granada CF?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Getafe 30% BTTS, Granada CF 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Getafe and 30% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 40% of games; Granada CF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Getafe's recent matches and 40% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Getafe's recent games and 30% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Granada CF tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Granada CF 4-2 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.09 xG and Granada CF 0.74 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Getafe beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Granada CF attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 42% | Draw 35% | Granada CF 23%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 30%, Granada CF 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Granada CF's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 0.90 PPG, Granada CF 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.