Getafe 0-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Getafe vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Celta Vigo meet at Coliseum in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Getafe's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's home record at Coliseum: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Getafe are significantly better at Coliseum than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Celta Vigo arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Getafe lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Getafe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Getafe — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 41% versus Celta Vigo 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Getafe 34% | Celta Vigo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 0.81 xG and Celta Vigo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.664 / defence 0.974 | Celta Vigo attack 1.035 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.121. Getafe's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Getafe games / 59 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 25% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 42%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Celta Vigo 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Getafe 40% | Celta Vigo 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Coliseum • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 25% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Getafe 0.81 / Celta Vigo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.664 / def 0.974 | Celta Vigo attack 1.035 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Celta Vigo xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Getafe vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
Getafe 0 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Getafe vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Celta Vigo part of?
Getafe vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 25% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Getafe and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Celta Vigo?
Record (9 meetings): Getafe 4W | Draws 2 | Celta Vigo 3W.
What form are Getafe and Celta Vigo in?
Getafe (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.66) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.03x) against Getafe's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
25%
4.02
33%
3.01
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.94
1.13
Celta Vigo xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 16.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Getafe and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Getafe and 1.13 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 13D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 1.47 PPG from 59 outings (24W 15D 20L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Getafe against 1.47 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Getafe's home form reads 7W 9D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.49 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 66%.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 17W 13D 29L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Celta Vigo away?
Celta Vigo's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.03 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 0-3 on 25 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Getafe
3
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Getafe 0-0 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Celta Vigo?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 45%, Celta Vigo 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Getafe) and 59% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Getafe have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Getafe's games and 69% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Getafe vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Getafe's recent games and 59% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Getafe's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe and Celta Vigo finished level at 0-0 at Coliseum, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 0.81 xG and Celta Vigo 1.13 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Getafe fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against Celta Vigo attack 1.03 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 25% | Draw 33% | Celta Vigo 42%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 34%, Celta Vigo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.08 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.