Getafe 4-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Getafe and Cadiz meet at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Getafe have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 games at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Getafe, 1.00 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Getafe — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 38% versus Cadiz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 38% | Cadiz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.05 xG and Cadiz 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.769 / defence 1.333 | Cadiz attack 0.985 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.091. Getafe's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Getafe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Getafe games / 13 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 26% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 44%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Cadiz 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Getafe 50% | Cadiz 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Coliseum Alfonso Pérez • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 26% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Getafe 1.05 / Cadiz 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.769 / def 1.333 | Cadiz attack 0.985 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cadiz xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Cadiz kick off?
Getafe vs Cadiz kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Getafe 4 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Getafe vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez.
What competition is Getafe vs Cadiz part of?
Getafe vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 26% chance of winning, Cadiz a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Getafe and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in?
Getafe (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Getafe's attack rating (0.77) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.98x) against Getafe's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
26%
3.78
29%
3.43
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.49
1.43
Cadiz xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Getafe and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Getafe and 1.43 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Getafe have picked up 0.46 PPG on a 1W 3D 9L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz's form line: 2W 6D 5L from 13 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cadiz are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Getafe.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Getafe have posted 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.92 PPG overall record — Cadiz travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Getafe are averaging 0.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.92 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 games (0.46 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Cadiz away?
Cadiz's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 0.67 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 4-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Getafe
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Getafe have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Cadiz?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Getafe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 50%, Cadiz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Getafe) and 50% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Getafe have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Getafe's games and 67% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Getafe vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 50% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Cadiz tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Getafe run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Cadiz 4-0 at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.05 xG and Cadiz 1.43 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Getafe beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cadiz landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.77 / defence 1.33 against Cadiz attack 0.98 / defence 1.32, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 26% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 44%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Getafe win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 38%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cadiz arrived the stronger side — 0.92 PPG against 0.46. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.