Espanyol 0-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Espanyol take on Villarreal.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Espanyol welcome Villarreal to RCDE Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Espanyol have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Espanyol at 1.00 PPG versus Villarreal's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Espanyol's 0% and Villarreal's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 0.87 xG and Villarreal 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.981 / defence 1.150 | Villarreal attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.772 / away 0.973. Data: 1 Espanyol games / 1 Villarreal games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Espanyol 27% | Draw 41% | Villarreal 32%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 3.70 | Draw 2.44 | Villarreal 3.12. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 27% | Draw 41% | Villarreal 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Espanyol 0.87 / Villarreal 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.981 / def 1.150 | Villarreal attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.772 / away 0.973 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Villarreal xG
40%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Villarreal kick off?
Espanyol vs Villarreal kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Espanyol 0 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Espanyol vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Villarreal part of?
Espanyol vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 27% chance of winning, Villarreal a 32% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Espanyol and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Villarreal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Espanyol and Villarreal in?
Espanyol (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D. Villarreal (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Espanyol's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.64
41%
2.46
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Espanyol xG
Total xG
1.82
0.95
Villarreal xG
3.64
27%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 15.4 | 7.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.95 for Villarreal, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Espanyol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.00 PPG, Villarreal on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Espanyol are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Villarreal in 0%.
Defensively: Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Villarreal in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Espanyol or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Villarreal in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Espanyol and Villarreal runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Villarreal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Espanyol's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Espanyol
1
Draws
7
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Villarreal?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 0, Villarreal have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Villarreal 4-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Espanyol's recent matches and 0% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Espanyol's recent games and 0% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Villarreal tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Espanyol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Espanyol and Villarreal drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 0.87 xG and Villarreal 0.95 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Espanyol fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Villarreal landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Villarreal attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 27% | Draw 41% | Villarreal 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 0%, Villarreal 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.00 PPG, Villarreal 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.