Espanyol 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 35 as Espanyol welcome Osasuna to RCDE Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Espanyol at 1.10 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Espanyol, 0 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Espanyol in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 53% versus Osasuna 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 47% | Osasuna 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.34 xG and Osasuna 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.931 / defence 1.097 | Osasuna attack 0.827 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.124. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Espanyol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Espanyol games / 34 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 43% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 27%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Osasuna 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 50% | Osasuna 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 43% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Espanyol 1.34 / Osasuna 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.931 / def 1.097 | Osasuna attack 0.827 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Osasuna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Osasuna kick off?
Espanyol vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Espanyol 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Espanyol vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Osasuna part of?
Espanyol vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 43% chance of winning, Osasuna a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Espanyol and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Espanyol 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in?
Espanyol (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Espanyol's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.34
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.36
1.02
Osasuna xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.02 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Espanyol come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 9D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.32 PPG from 34 outings (12W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.15 PPG, Osasuna on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Espanyol's home form reads 9W 4D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.03 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Osasuna away?
Espanyol's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.82 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Osasuna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Espanyol's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Espanyol
4
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 2, Osasuna have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 47%, Osasuna 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Espanyol) and 41% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Osasuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Espanyol's recent matches and 35% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Espanyol's recent games and 41% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Osasuna tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Espanyol and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.34 xG and Osasuna 1.02 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Osasuna attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 43% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 27%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 47%, Osasuna 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.15 PPG, Osasuna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.