Cadiz 2-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cadiz and Getafe meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's home record at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla: 4W 5D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
Getafe (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Cadiz, 1.10 for Getafe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cadiz 0W, Getafe 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cadiz — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Getafe — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 42% versus Getafe 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 36% | Getafe 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.23 xG and Getafe 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.923 / defence 0.890 | Getafe attack 0.920 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 0.969. Data: 62 Cadiz games / 62 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 46% | Draw 30% | Getafe 24%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Getafe 4.17. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Getafe 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 46% | Draw 30% | Getafe 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Cadiz 1.23 / Getafe 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.923 / def 0.890 | Getafe attack 0.920 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.348 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Getafe xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Getafe kick off?
Cadiz vs Getafe kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Cadiz 2 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Cadiz vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Getafe part of?
Cadiz vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 46% chance of winning, Getafe a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cadiz and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
Record (3 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 2 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in?
Cadiz (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Getafe (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.92x the league average against Getafe's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (0.92x) against Cadiz's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
46%
2.16
30%
3.37
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.02
0.79
Getafe xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.79 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cadiz come into this having played 62 games, going 14W 23D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Getafe sit at 1.03 PPG from 62 outings (14W 22D 26L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Cadiz against 1.03 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cadiz's home form reads 7W 13D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Getafe have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (3W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cadiz are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.90 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Getafe in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 14W 23D 25L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while Getafe have gone 14W 22D 26L in their last 62 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Getafe away?
Cadiz's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.13 PPG; Getafe away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Getafe in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Getafe won 4-0 on 21 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Getafe?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Getafe have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 43%, Getafe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cadiz and 27% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 37% of games; Getafe in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cadiz's recent matches and 47% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 27% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Getafe tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Getafe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Getafe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 25, as Cadiz and Getafe drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.23 xG and Getafe 0.79 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Getafe outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Getafe attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 46% | Draw 30% | Getafe 24%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 36%, Getafe 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Getafe's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.05 PPG, Getafe 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.