Almeria 1-3 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Real Sociedad encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Real Sociedad travel to Power Horse Stadium to take on Almeria in La Liga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Almeria — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Almeria have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Almeria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Real Sociedad have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Real Sociedad's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Sociedad — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Almeria, 2 for Real Sociedad and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2023, ended Almeria 0–1 Real Sociedad — a Real Sociedad win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Almeria in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Real Sociedad in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 68% versus Real Sociedad 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 64% | Real Sociedad 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.35 xG and Real Sociedad 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.017 / defence 1.458 | Real Sociedad attack 0.980 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.221. Almeria's defence rating of 1.458 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Sociedad's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 50 games and Real Sociedad's last 50.

Result probabilities: Almeria 30% | Draw 24% | Real Sociedad 47%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 3.37 | Draw 4.24 | Real Sociedad 2.14. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.35 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Real Sociedad's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 70% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 50% (last 10 away games).

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