Almeria 0-0 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Betis make the trip to Power Horse Stadium to face Almeria in La Liga (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Almeria (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Almeria's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Almeria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Real Betis have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Real Betis have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Real Betis are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Almeria's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Almeria's games and 70% of Real Betis's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Real Betis edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2023, ended Almeria 2–3 Real Betis — a Real Betis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Almeria — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Real Betis — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 69% versus Real Betis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 65% | Real Betis 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Almeria surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Real Betis have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.56 xG and Real Betis 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.980 / defence 1.542 | Real Betis attack 0.930 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.162. Almeria's defence rating of 1.542 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Real Betis's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 52 games and Real Betis's last 52.
Result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 39%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.91 | Draw 3.76 | Real Betis 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Almeria's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 70% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Almeria 1.56 / Real Betis 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.980 / def 1.542 | Real Betis attack 0.930 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Real Betis xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Real Betis FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Real Betis kick off?
Almeria vs Real Betis kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Real Betis?
Almeria 0 - 0 Real Betis.
Where is Almeria vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Real Betis part of?
Almeria vs Real Betis is a La Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 34% chance of winning, Real Betis a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Almeria and Real Betis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almeria vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.98) and Real Betis's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.93x) against Almeria's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 52 games and Real Betis's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.76
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Almeria xG
Total xG
3.22
1.67
Real Betis xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
6%
15.40
8%
12.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Real Betis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Almeria and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Almeria and 1.67 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria come into this having played 52 games, going 11W 11D 30L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Real Betis sit at 1.62 PPG from 52 outings (23W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Almeria's home form reads 10W 5D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.35 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Real Betis have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 26 away games (9W 8D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.23 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
Almeria (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Almeria vs Real Betis Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 11D 30L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 23W 15D 14L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Real Betis away?
Almeria's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.35 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Almeria or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Real Betis in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
1
Draws
3
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Real Betis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Real Betis?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 0, Real Betis have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almeria and Real Betis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2024: Real Betis 3-2 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 69%, Real Betis 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Almeria) and 46% (Real Betis). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Betis in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Real Betis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Real Betis matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Almeria's games and 54% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almeria and Real Betis matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Almeria's matches and 46% of Real Betis's.
Do Almeria and Real Betis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Almeria's recent matches and 65% of Real Betis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Almeria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Almeria and Real Betis drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.56 xG and Real Betis 1.67 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Real Betis landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.98 / defence 1.54 against Real Betis attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 34% | Draw 27% | Real Betis 39%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 65%, Real Betis 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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