Almeria 2-3 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Almeria face Celta Vigo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Celta Vigo travel to Power Horse Stadium to take on Almeria in La Liga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 September 2023 at 22:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Almeria's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Celta Vigo have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Almeria) versus 0.50 (Celta Vigo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Almeria have won 1, Celta Vigo 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Almeria 2–2 Celta Vigo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 66% versus Celta Vigo 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 58% | Celta Vigo 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.22 xG and Celta Vigo 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.891 / defence 1.180 | Celta Vigo attack 0.926 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.225. Data: built from Almeria's last 41 games and Celta Vigo's last 41.
Result probabilities: Almeria 33% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 39%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.99 | Draw 3.61 | Celta Vigo 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Almeria 50% (last 10 home games) | Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 September 2023 at 22:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 33% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Almeria 1.22 / Celta Vigo 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.891 / def 1.180 | Celta Vigo attack 0.926 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Celta Vigo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Celta Vigo FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Almeria vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 22:00 UK time on Friday 1 September 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Almeria 2 - 3 Celta Vigo.
Where is Almeria vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Celta Vigo part of?
Almeria vs Celta Vigo is a La Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 33% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Almeria and Celta Vigo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almeria vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Almeria's attack rating (0.89) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 41 games and Celta Vigo's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.61
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.34
Celta Vigo xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.38
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Celta Vigo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Almeria and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Almeria and 1.34 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria's recent record stands at 11W 9D 21L from 41 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 19L across 41 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 1.02 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 10W 3D 7L from their last 20 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across their last 20 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almeria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Almeria (Home) vs Celta Vigo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Early Season
Celta Vigo
Early Season
❓ Almeria vs Celta Vigo Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 11W 9D 21L in their last 41 games (1.02 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Celta Vigo away?
Almeria's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.65 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Celta Vigo have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Almeria's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Celta Vigo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Celta Vigo?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 1, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Almeria and Celta Vigo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2024: Celta Vigo 1-0 Almeria.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 60%, Celta Vigo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Almeria) and 45% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Celta Vigo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Celta Vigo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Almeria's games and 50% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Almeria and Celta Vigo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Almeria's recent games and 45% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Celta Vigo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Almeria's recent matches and 75% of Celta Vigo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Almeria 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Almeria 2-3 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.22 xG and Celta Vigo 1.34 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Celta Vigo outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against Celta Vigo attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 33% | Draw 28% | Celta Vigo 39%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 58%, Celta Vigo 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 1.02 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More La Liga fixtures — matchday 4
All La Liga fixtures →
More Spanish football predictions →