Suwon City FC 4-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 54% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.39 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / defence 1.057 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.892 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.229. Data: 58 Suwon City FC games / 58 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon City FC 1.39 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / def 1.057 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.892 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon City FC 4 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 42% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Suwon City FC 2W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.09x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.77
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
8%
12.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.16 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 22W 15D 26L from 63 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 17L across 63 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.29 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 30W 16D 17L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 60%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Suwon City FC) and 27% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 27% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.39 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 54%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.29 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.