Suwon Bluewings 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon Bluewings versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.83 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.896 / defence 1.244 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.840 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 1.043. Data: 9 Suwon Bluewings games / 9 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 26% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 26% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.83 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.896 / def 1.244 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.840 / def 0.952 | league avg home 0.973 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Suwon Bluewings 3 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 26% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 0.90x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.84x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
26%
3.87
35%
2.89
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.92
1.09
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.87
26%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 16.0 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.09 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon Bluewings won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 July 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Suwon Bluewings run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.83 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.09 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 26% | Draw 35% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.