Suwon Bluewings 2-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Jeonbuk Motors at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon Bluewings at 1.40 PPG versus Jeonbuk Motors's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Jeonbuk Motors have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Suwon Bluewings's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jeonbuk Motors have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Suwon Bluewings in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 47% versus Jeonbuk Motors 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 47% | Jeonbuk Motors 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.07 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.973 / defence 1.081 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.307 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.279. Jeonbuk Motors have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Suwon Bluewings games / 65 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 22% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 55%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Jeonbuk Motors 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 22% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.07 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.973 / def 1.081 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.307 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Jeonbuk Motors xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon Bluewings 2 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 22% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 0 | Jeonbuk Motors 5W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
22%
4.47
23%
4.34
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.88
1.81
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
4%
27.22
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.81 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 70 games, going 20W 20D 30L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.91 PPG from 70 outings (38W 20D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 10W 12D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.97 points per game from 35 outings (20W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.64 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 20W 20D 30L in their last 70 games (1.14 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 38W 20D 12L in their last 70 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.20 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 51%, Jeonbuk Motors 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Suwon Bluewings) and 46% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 43%; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 49% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon Bluewings 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon Bluewings 2-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.07 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.81 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.31 / defence 0.81, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 22% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 55%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 47%, Jeonbuk Motors 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.