Seongnam FC 1-3 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tancheon Sports Complex plays host to Seongnam FC versus Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Wednesday 21 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.70 xG and Incheon United 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.943 / defence 0.880 | Incheon United attack 0.707 / defence 1.898. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 0.960. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.898 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Seongnam FC games / 10 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 64% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 13%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Incheon United 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Seongnam FC (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Seongnam FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 64% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 37% | xG Seongnam FC 1.70 / Incheon United 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.943 / def 0.880 | Incheon United attack 0.707 / def 1.898 | league avg home 0.947 / away 0.960 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Incheon United xG
37%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Seongnam FC 1 - 3 Incheon United.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Incheon United part of?
Seongnam FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 64% chance of winning, Incheon United a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Seongnam FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and Incheon United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.94) and Incheon United's defence rating (1.90), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.71x) against Seongnam FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.25
13%
7.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.60
Incheon United xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
7.99
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
2%
43.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.60 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Incheon United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Incheon United?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-1 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Seongnam FC 1-3 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.70 xG and Incheon United 0.60 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United outscored their 0.60 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Incheon United attack 0.71 / defence 1.90, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 64% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 13%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Incheon United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.