Pohang Steelers 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Jeju United FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Steelyard Stadium, Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Steelyard Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pohang Steelers 1.70 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 49% versus Jeju United FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 37% | Jeju United FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.65 xG and Jeju United FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.028 / defence 0.662 | Jeju United FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.209. Jeju United FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Pohang Steelers's defence rating of 0.662 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Pohang Steelers games / 54 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Jeju United FC 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 40% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.65 / Jeju United FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.028 / def 0.662 | Jeju United FC attack 1.000 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Jeju United FC xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 57% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (1.03) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
57%
1.74
25%
4.01
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.45
0.80
Jeju United FC xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
3%
29.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.80 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 59 games, going 22W 16D 21L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.44 PPG from 59 outings (21W 22D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.39 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (10W 11D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 22W 16D 21L in their last 59 games (1.39 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 21W 22D 16L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Jeju United FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.47 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 47%, Jeju United FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Pohang Steelers) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 33%; Jeju United FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.65 xG and Jeju United FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.03 / defence 0.66 against Jeju United FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 57% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 18%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 37%, Jeju United FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.39 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.